Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models

Abstract. The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such, tipping can have significant climate impacts; it is important to understand the mechanisms at play and how they are represented in modern climate models. In this study, we use causal inference to investigate the representation of several proposed mechanisms for subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models. As expected, an increase in sea surface salinity or a decrease in sea surface temperature leads to an increase in mixed layer depth in nearly all CMIP6 models due to an intensification of deep convection. However, the effect of convection on modifying sea surface temperature due to re-stratification is less clear. In most models, the deepening of the mixed layer caused by an increase in sea surface salinity does result in a cooling of the water at intermediate depths. The feedback from the subsurface temperature through density to the strength of the subpolar gyre circulation is more ambiguous, with fewer models indicating a significant link. Those that do show a significant link do not agree on its sign. The CMIP6 models that have the expected sign for the links from density to the subpolar gyre strength and from there to sea surface salinity are also the models in which abrupt shifts in the subpolar gyre region have been found in climate change scenario runs. One model (CESM2) contains all proposed mechanisms, with both a negative and a delayed positive feedback loop being significant.