Multi-temporal study of climate change impacts on Cuitzeo Lake, México

Abstract The lack of strict regulation over water resource use in Mexico has contributed significantly to the depletion of national water reserves. Many regions across the country now struggle to meet even basic water demands, particularly during droughts that have become increasingly frequent due to global climate change. Surface water bodies are especially vulnerable, facing intense pressure from overexploitation for agricultural, urban, industrial, and fisheries-related uses, as well as widespread discharge of untreated wastewater. The preservation of these resources requires effective monitoring strategies, as their scarcity underscores the urgency of both academic research and governmental action. While in situ sampling remains the standard method for assessing water quality, remote sensing has emerged as a cost-effective and scalable alternative. In this study, we evaluate the influence of climatological variables on surface water dynamics in Lake Cuitzeo, Mexico’s second-largest freshwater body, over the past 30 years. Using Landsat imagery, we calculated the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index to asses water surface coverage changes. Followed by a trend analysis, and an Ordinary Least Squares regression to analyse their correlations. The results demonstrate that while climatic factors play a role in altering the lake’s surface area, with a 22.6% of the presented model being explained by the climatological variables, anthropogenic activities may be an even more significant driver of change. Emphasising the urgent need for comprehensive monitoring and management policies to prevent the continued deterioration and potential disappearance of Lake Cuitzeo.