Estimating the local economic impacts of Early Learning and Childcare expansion in Glasgow, Scotland

Traditionally, public investment for stimulating economic growth has been understood as investment in tangible public infrastructure such as construction. More recently, there is evidence that investment in childcare can stimulate economic growth by increasing parental employment and could pay dividends in terms of closing the educational ‘attainment gap’ for children, particularly at the lower end of the income scale. Policy changes including the expansion of publicly funded childcare places reflect the understanding that childcare supports economic growth through direct, indirect and induced effects. However, investment in childcare as social infrastructure remains classed as consumption expenditure. This article uses input-output modelling to estimate and reflect on the local economic impacts in Glasgow of the Scottish Government’s major expansion of funded ELC from 2018 onwards of 1140 hours per annum for three- and four-year olds as well as eligible two-year olds. This analysis demonstrates that in addition to the direct contributions through increased employment, there are indirect and induced effects which should be considered as key components of childcare expansion as a means of regional and local economic development.