Long-Term Divergence in Green Exposure Trajectories and Economic Determinants in Urban China

Urban greening is increasingly promoted as a means to achieve sustainable and inclusive development. However, it remains unclear whether the expansion of green infrastructure reduces spatial and socioeconomic inequalities or reinforces them. This study examines the long-term dynamics of green space exposure in 287 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2020 using geospatial and statistical data. While median green coverage and exposure increased by 126% and 135%, spatial disparities also grew. Eastern cities consistently showed higher levels of exposure, and national-level improvements did not translate into proportional narrowing of interregional gaps. Granger causality tests indicate a bidirectional relationship between economic growth and green exposure at the national level. This relationship varies across regions. Cities in the east, center, and northeast exhibit strong mutual effects, while other regions show weaker or unidirectional linkages. In North China, economic development and green exposure are entirely disconnected. These differences have led to divergent patterns in exposure equity. Despite a 44% national decline in the Gini index, disparities persisted, most notably in northeastern China. The results suggest that area-based greening targets are insufficient to address inequality. Planning strategies that consider population exposure and regional conditions are needed to improve the inclusiveness of urban greening. This study offers evidence for designing more equitable greening approaches in rapidly urbanizing areas.