The Reconstruction of China’s Population Mobility Pattern Under Digital Technology Evolution: A Pathway to Urban Sustainability

Population mobility is increasingly crucial for regional development. However, current studies often neglect the impact of rapid digitalization. This study adopts a three-stage analytical framework derived from the Techno-Economic Paradigm across its incubation, penetration, and maturity phases to examine how digital technology evolution has reshaped China’s population mobility patterns. Through ERGM and social network analysis, we found the following: (1) During the incubation period (1980s–2000), digital technology enhanced economies of scale, leading to a siphoning effect of the population from inland to coastal areas. (2) In the penetration phase (2000–2017), digital technology had a dual effect. Automation weakened coastal agglomeration by replacing labor, while the digital industry created new inland clusters of employment, ultimately reshaping population mobility into a multi-center structure. (3) In the maturity phase (2018–present), the concentration of skilled workers in technology hubs and the dispersal of displaced labor to less digitally advanced areas formed a multi-centered and networked population mobility pattern, thereby enhancing the sustainability and spatial balance of the urban system through functional specialization and the matching of skill profiles to city roles.