Declining demand and circular transition possibilities of sand, gravel and crushed stone in China

Aggregates (sand, gravel, crushed stone) make up half of all globally extracted materials and present substantial environmental challenges. China, which consumes half of the world's aggregates, is undergoing profound shifts in both supply and demand. Our scenario-based model tracks aggregate flows and stocks across 30 end-uses in Chinese provinces from 1978 to 2050. We find that China's aggregate demand peaked around 2015, accompanied by a gradual and continuous shift from natural to manufactured aggregates. Total demand after 2030 is projected to decline to ~50% of 2020 levels in circular economy scenarios. Per capita stocks tend to saturate by 2040, although saturation timing varies across provinces. Stock saturation may lead to increased availability of recycled aggregates, which could become a primary supply source. We highlight the critical need for stricter policies and regulations for the aggregate industry, offering insights for other economies facing similar challenges.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2025-10-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64349-3
Citations
3
Primary Topic
Underground infrastructure and sustainability
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.02
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Declining demand and circular transition possibilities of sand, gravel and crushed stone in China

Dingjiang Chen, Heming Wang, Wenji Zhou, Stefan Bringezu et al.
3 citations
Nature Communications
Underground infrastructure and sustainability
3.02
article

Declining demand and circular transition possibilities of sand, gravel and crushed stone in China

Dingjiang Chen, Heming Wang, Wenji Zhou, Stefan Bringezu, Edgar G. Hertwich, Clemens Mostert, Zijian Ren, Lin Liu, Paul Behrens, Fei Li, Ming Xu, Meng Jiang, Chunlong Li, Bing Zhu
article en
3 citations

Abstract

Aggregates (sand, gravel, crushed stone) make up half of all globally extracted materials and present substantial environmental challenges. China, which consumes half of the world's aggregates, is undergoing profound shifts in both supply and demand. Our scenario-based model tracks aggregate flows and stocks across 30 end-uses in Chinese provinces from 1978 to 2050. We find that China's aggregate demand peaked around 2015, accompanied by a gradual and continuous shift from natural to manufactured aggregates. Total demand after 2030 is projected to decline to ~50% of 2020 levels in circular economy scenarios. Per capita stocks tend to saturate by 2040, although saturation timing varies across provinces. Stock saturation may lead to increased availability of recycled aggregates, which could become a primary supply source. We highlight the critical need for stricter policies and regulations for the aggregate industry, offering insights for other economies facing similar challenges.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 16(1)
University of Kassel (DE), Sinopec (China) (CN), Leiden University (NL), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO), University of Oxford (GB), State Key Laboratory of Chemical Engineering (CN), Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture (CN), Beijing University of Chemical Technology (CN), Renmin University of China (CN), Northeastern University (CN), Tsinghua University (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 8%
Underground infrastructure and sustainability
3.02
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.