The long-term logistical implications and risks from the Russian invasion of Ukraine on global corn trade flows

Abstract This paper examines the long-term effects on trade from major exporters to key importers. A Monte Carlo simulation combines forecasts for corn trade, energy and shipping costs with the current logistics structure and seasonal dynamics. Random logistical costs are modeled using subject matter expert time–series methods, which calculate optimal monthly trade flows over a 10-year period, from July 2023 to August 2032, to minimize logistics costs. Results indicate that Brazil’s share of the corn market is likely to increase if the war persists, while the US share remains stable. Argentina’s and Ukraine’s shares decline due to throughput constraints on Ukrainian exports. If the war ends in October 2025, Ukraine’s market share is expected to increase.