Modeling Carbon Sequestration and Economic Returns Using 3-PG in the FSC-Certified Simcoe County Forest

In this study, we developed three forest management scenarios for Simcoe County Forest in Southern Ontario, Canada, using the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG) model to simulate future forest growth and carbon dynamics. The focus was on four main species: Red pine (Pinus resinosa), White pine (Pinus strobus), Sugar maple (Acer saccharum), and Red oak (Quercus rubra). We parameterized, calibrated, and validated parameters of the 3-PG model for these four species and applied the model to evaluate the performance of management scenarios incorporating timber and carbon values in Simcoe County Forest. The first scenario, “business as usual,” maintained the existing management plan for the forest, ensuring stable timber income (531.2 CAD/hectare) and moderate carbon sequestration. The second scenario aimed to optimize management for the highest timber Net Present Value (NPV), with half of the trees harvested before 2030, followed by gradual thinning over 15 years. This approach yielded the highest financial returns (1634.1 CAD/hectare) but the lowest carbon sequestration potential. The third scenario integrated carbon certification, emphasizing the retention of sugar maple stands over the next 20 years. This scenario produced financial returns (580.2 CAD/hectare) higher than the “business as usual” scenario, while saving 49.33 tons of biomass per hectare. Overall, this study provides a reference for the implementation of carbon sequestration projects.