Decoding the Carbon Reduction Effect of Imports: How Import Expansion Bridges Global Carbon Reduction in China

ABSTRACT This study explores the role of import trade in reducing China's domestic carbon emissions—an area often overlooked in climate policy design. Using 2020 data from China's noncompetitive input–output tables and sectoral energy consumption statistics, the analysis reveals significant variation in carbon emission reduction intensity across sectors. Notably, industries such as petroleum and coking products, metal smelting and pressing, and coal mining exhibit higher reduction intensities, indicating that strategic import expansion in these areas can effectively mitigate domestic emissions. In 2020, China's import trade contributed to a reduction of approximately 1106 million tonnes of carbon emissions, accounting for 12.9% of the country's total production‐based emissions. This highlights the substantial role of import trade in China's carbon reduction efforts. However, the relatively small share of imports in high‐emission sectors suggests that the current import structure may constrain the overall mitigation potential. To enhance the effectiveness of import trade as a carbon reduction tool, the study recommends measures such as lowering tariffs on carbon‐intensive products and strategically increasing imports in targeted sectors. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to align trade policy with environmental sustainability.