Refining Carbon Balance Estimates of Harvested Wood Products: A Generalizable Tier-3 Production Approach for China

The carbon pool of harvested wood products (HWPs) is an essential part of the national greenhouse gas inventory. Developing a Tier-3 method for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Production Approach (PA) enhances the accuracy of HWP carbon balance assessments and removal estimates. This is crucial as the PA is a mandatory IPCC approach. A major challenge for developing a Tier-3 PA is the absence of an effective way to allocate HWP production to domestic and overseas end uses, precluding the application of Tier-3 PA in most countries in the world. Here, we integrated the Eora multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model, which effectively allocates HWPs to these end uses into the PA to create a generalizable Tier-3 PA. Using China-produced HWPs from 1990 to 2020 as a case study, we report that these HWPs accumulated a carbon stock of 3376 MtCO2e by 2020 and provided a carbon sink of 221 MtCO2e yr−1 from 2016 to 2020. Construction, furniture, other solid HWPs, sanitary and household paper, and other paper products accumulated 1244, 226, 1032, 0, and 189 MtCO2e, respectively. China’s trade partners consumed 14% of China-produced HWPs and contributed to 13% of the total carbon stock and 15% of the total carbon sink. The generalizable Tier-3 PA is applicable for countries with limited end-use data, and thus enhances their HWP carbon removal estimates. Our first-ever comprehensive PA-based assessment of overseas HWP consumption and carbon removal supports IPCC methodological improvement and future HWP-related international negotiations and mitigation actions.