Earthquake-Triggered Tsunami Hazard Assessment in the Santorini–Amorgos Tectonic Zone: Insights from Deterministic Scenario Modeling

In the early months of 2025, a significant seismic activity was recorded in the area between Santorini and Amorgos, raising concerns about the potential occurrence of a major earthquake and a possible tsunami. The objective of this study is to assess the earthquake-triggered tsunami hazard in the Santorini-Amorgos Tectonic Zone (SATZ) by simulating tsunami processes using the MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunami) numerical model, implemented through the ComMIT (Community Model Interface for Tsunamis). High-resolution bathymetry and topography were employed to model tsunami generation, propagation, and onshore inundation. A total of 60 simulations were conducted using a deterministic approach based on worst-case scenarios. The analysis considered six major active faults with two kinematic types, pure normal and oblique-slip, and assessed tsunami impact on five selected coastal study areas. The simulations results showed potential maximum run-up values of 4.1 m in Gialos (Ios), 2.7 m in Kamari (Santorini), 2.4 m in Perissa (Santorini), 1.5 m in Katapola (Amorgos), and 2.3 m in Chora (Astypalaea), in some cases affecting residential zones. Inundation flows also impacted the main ports of Gialos, Katapola, and Chora, highlighting the exposure of critical infrastructure. Although earthquake-triggered tsunamis represent a potential hazard in the SATZ, the results indicated that it is unlikely to cause a widespread disaster in the study areas.