Thermal Vulnerability and Potential Cultivation Areas of Four Day-Neutral Strawberries in Chile: Implications for Climate Adaptation

Understanding strawberry thermal resilience is crucial for optimizing cultivation in the face of climate change. However, its thermal niche remains underexplored. We assessed the thermal vulnerability of leaves and flowers in four day-neutral strawberry varieties cultivated in Chile and evaluated potential shifts in their suitable cultivation areas under warming scenarios. Tolerance to freezing, heat (LT₅₀), and Thermal Tolerance Breadth (TTB) were determined, and habitat suitability was modeled using MaxEnt under two climate change projections and time periods. Heat LT₅₀ of leaves and flowers was similar across strawberry varieties, averaging 56 °C. Conversely, the average freezing LT₅₀ of flowers was 12 K less negative than that of leaves across varieties. The TTB of leaves was generally broader than that of flowers, except for San Andreas, with Monterrey displaying the broadest TTB difference (14.6 K). Climatic models indicated slight southward shifts in suitable cultivation areas under warming in Chile and globally. Nevertheless, the potential for strawberry cultivation in the more southern regions will depend on the development and implementation of cultivation strategies that effectively minimize the risk of freezing damage to the flowers. This highlights the need to plan cultivation areas according to each variety's thermal tolerance to enhance resilience and sustainability in a changing climate.