Quantifying the Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Factors of Lake Turbidity in Northeast China from 1985 to 2023

Turbidity is a crucial indicator for evaluating water quality. This study obtained the long-term spatial distribution of water turbidity across Northeast China from 1985 to 2023. A combination of the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model, the Lindeman, Merenda, and Gold (LMG) method, and statistical data analysis methods were employed to quantify the spatiotemporal impacts of driving factors on turbidity changes. The stepwise regression model was able to credibly estimate turbidity, achieving a low RMSE of 18.432 Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTU). Temporal variations in turbidity showed that 69.90% of lakes exhibited a decreasing trend. Spatial variations revealed that lakes with significantly increased turbidity were predominantly concentrated in the Songnen and Sanjiang Plains, whereas lakes with lower turbidity were situated in the Eastern Mountains regions and Liaohe Plain. Temporal changes were closely associated with socioeconomic development and anthropogenic interventions implemented by governments on the aquatic environment. Vegetation coverage, precipitation, and elevation demonstrated significant contributions (exceeding 16.39%) to turbidity variations in the Lesser Khingan and Eastern Mountains regions, where natural factors played a more dominant role. In contrast, cropland area, wind speed, and impervious surface area showed higher contribution rates of above 14.00% in the Songnen, Sanjiang, and Liaohe Plains, where anthropogenic factors were dominant. These findings provide valuable insights for informed decision-making in water environmental management in Northeast China and facilitate the aquatic ecosystem sustainability under human activities and climate change.