A Multi-Parameter-Driven SC-ANFIS Framework for Predictive Modeling of Acid Number Variations in Lubricating Oils

The acid number is widely recognized as one of the most essential and frequently used indicators for evaluating the degradation state of lubricants. Changes in acid number serve as a direct reflection of the oil’s oxidative deterioration. Conventional prediction methods, however, often neglect the coupling effects among multiple physical factors and lack sufficient dynamic adaptability. Therefore, this study proposes a method for predicting the variation trend of lubricating oil acid number by integrating an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Subtractive Clustering (SC), establishing an SC-ANFIS-based predictive model. The subtractive clustering technique automatically determines the number of fuzzy rules and initial parameters directly from the dataset, thereby eliminating redundant rules and simplifying the model architecture. The SC-ANFIS model further optimizes the parameters of the fuzzy inference system through the self-learning ability of neural networks. Lubricant aging tests were conducted using a laboratory oxidation stability tester. Regular sampling was carried out to acquire comprehensive lubricant performance degradation data. The input variables of the model include the current acid number, carbonyl peak intensity, metal element concentrations (Fe and Cu), viscosity, and water content of the lubricating oil, while the output variable corresponds to the rate of change in the acid number of the lubricating oil relative to the previous time step. The proposed model demonstrates effective prediction of the lubricating oil acid number variation trend. Posterior difference tests confirmed its high predictive accuracy, with all three evaluation metrics—RMSE, MAE, and MAPE—outperforming those of the BP model.