Transport–environment–economy linkages in Yellow River’s ‘Ji-shape’ bend metro area

To advance high-quality development in the Yellow River basin’s ‘Ji-shape’ bend metropolitan area (YRB-JBMA), the authors constructed a transportation–environment–economy evaluation system. Using coupling coordination and GM(1,1) models, spatiotemporal coupling characteristics (2012–2021) were assessed and coupling coordination degree (CCD) was predicted. Results indicate: (a) all subsystems show positive trends, with ecological environment performing best; (b) CCD evolved from near imbalance to marginal coordination, exhibiting a multicentric-edge spatial pattern centred on Ordos/Hohhot/Taiyuan/Yinchuan; (c) during forecasting, YRB-JBMA’s overall CCD improved continuously, with Xinzhou emerging as the city with the highest CCD by the end of the forecast, while Shizuishan and Wuzhong remained near imbalance. Path recommendations are proposed to coordinate transport development with ecological conservation.