Investigating Ammonia as an Alternative Marine Fuel: A SWOT Analysis Using the Best–Worst Method

The shipping industry remains heavily dependent on heavy fuel oils, which account for approximately 77% of fuel consumption and contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In line with the IMO’s decarbonization targets, ammonia has emerged as a promising carbon-free alternative. This study evaluates the strategic viability of ammonia, especially green production, as a marine fuel through a hybrid SWOT–Best–Worst Method (BWM) analysis, combining literature insights with expert judgment. Data were collected from 17 maritime professionals with an average of 15.7 years of experience, ensuring robust sectoral representation and methodological consistency. The results highlight that opportunities hold the greatest weight (0.352), particularly the criteria “mandatory carbon-free by 2050” (O3:0.106) and “ammonia–hydrogen climate solution” (O2:0.080). Weaknesses rank second (0.270), with “higher toxicity than other marine fuels” (W5:0.077) as the most critical concern. Strengths (0.242) underscore ammonia’s advantage as a “carbon-free and sulfur-free fuel” (S1:0.078), while threats (0.137) remain less influential, though “costly green ammonia” (T3:0.035) and “uncertainty of green ammonia” (T1:0.034) present notable risks. Overall, the analysis suggests that regulatory imperatives and environmental benefits outweigh safety, technical, and economic challenges. Ammonia demonstrates strong potential to serve as viable marine fuel in achieving the maritime sector’s long-term decarbonization goals.