The Impact of Environmental Regulation on Greenization Level of Manufacturing Industrial Chains: A Dual Perspective of Direct Effects and Spatial Spillovers

Amid escalating global climate change and the urgent international demand for low-carbon development, enhancing the greenization level of manufacturing industrial chains has emerged as a critical policy priority. This study investigates the impact of environmental regulation on the greenization of China’s manufacturing industrial chains using provincial panel data from 30 regions (2010–2022), employing two-way fixed effects and spatial Durbin models. The results demonstrate that environmental regulation significantly promotes industrial chain greenization through three pathways: industrial structure rationalization, green technology innovation, and industrialization advancement. Heterogeneity analysis reveals stronger regulatory effects in regions characterized by coal-dependent energy structures, low shares of energy-intensive industries, and underdeveloped digital economies, while negligible impacts are observed in areas with cleaner energy mixes, high energy-intensive industrial concentrations, or advanced digitalization. Spatial econometric results confirm positive spatial spillovers, indicating that environmental regulation in one region enhances neighboring areas’ greenization through policy coordination and technology diffusion. Based on these findings, this study proposes tailored policy recommendations, including strengthening regulation in coal-reliant regions, optimizing industrial structures in energy-intensive hubs, and fostering cross-regional governance synergy to mitigate pollution haven effects. The research provides novel insights into achieving sustainable manufacturing transitions under the “dual carbon” framework.