Influencing Factors of Shellfish Consumption at the National Level

Shellfish is among the most widely consumed seafood products, providing essential nutritional benefits and playing a potential role in mitigating climate change. This study analyzes trends and factors influencing per capita shellfish consumption in the ten largest shellfish-producing countries from 1976 to 2022, using apparent consumption data and a fixed-effects panel model. The analysis explores the relationship between shellfish consumption and key economic and demographic factors, including per capita GDP, Engel’s coefficient, and the availability of substitute seafood products. Additionally, trade openness, population aging, and the greenhouse effect are incorporated as control variables. The findings reveal the following: (1) Global shellfish consumption has experienced moderate growth, primarily driven by China, Chile, and South Korea, whereas demand has declined in Japan, the U.S., and Spain. Consumption remained stable in New Zealand and Canada but fluctuated significantly in Peru. (2) The regression results indicate that per capita GDP and greenhouse gas emissions have a positive impact on per capita shellfish consumption, while Engel’s coefficient, the shellfish substitute index, fisheries trade openness, and an aging population are negatively correlated, with all relationships significant at the 1% level. (3) Robustness and heterogeneity results indicate that European and North American markets face saturation and stabilization challenges, while the greatest growth potential lies in developing countries, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, including China. To promote shellfish consumption and address regional supply imbalances, the study recommends enhancing international trade, fostering economic development, and capitalizing on the low-carbon advantages of shellfish aquaculture. Furthermore, investments in product innovation and cold chain logistics are essential for improving global resource allocation.