Influence of New-Type Industrialization on High-End Manufacturing Industry: Discussion Examining Threshold Effect of Industrial Chain Resilience

In the context of global manufacturing transformation and upgrading, understanding how the new-type industrialization strategy influences the high-end manufacturing industry is crucial for shaping competitive advantages. However, the mechanisms and boundary conditions of this effect remain unclear. To address this, this study deconstructs the connotation of new-type industrialization into three dimensions—technological innovation, digital drive, and green circulation—and constructs a comprehensive evaluation system. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces and A-share listed high-end manufacturing industry companies (2002–2022), we employ fixed-effects models, mediation effect analysis, and a panel threshold model. The results show the following: (1) New-type industrialization significantly promotes high-end manufacturing industry development, a finding robust to endogeneity and sensitivity tests. (2) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that non-old industrial bases, highly open regions, and provinces with sparse development zones benefit more. (3) New-type industrialization exerts its influence indirectly by enhancing human capital endowment. (4) Threshold effect analysis shows that when the resilience of the high-end manufacturing industry chain exceeds a critical level, it significantly enhances the ability of new-type industrialization, and the magnitude of this effect follows a logarithmic growth pattern. We recommend strengthening technological innovation, facilitating digital–green transformation, and implementing region-specific policies to enhance industrial chain resilience, thereby providing a sustainable pathway for high-end manufacturing industry development.