Research on Spatial Spillover Effects of Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of Water and Soil Resources: Evidence from the Yellow River Basin, China

Water and soil resources (WSRs) determine the healthy development of the socio-economic systems. This research seeks to clarify the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, spatial spillover effects, and key constraint factors influencing the comprehensive carrying capacity (CCC) of WSR in the Yellow River (YR) Basin from 2012 to 2023, thereby supporting the healthy development of the river basin. Based on the structural relationships among the internal elements of this system, the entropy method and an extensible cloud model are employed in this study to evaluate the WSR-CCC. Based on the estimation theory and spatial econometrics methods, the temporal and spatial evolution process of WSR-CCC was explored, and the obstructive factors were analyzed. We made the following discoveries: (1) The WSR-CCC demonstrates a fluctuating upward tendency, gradually moving from critical overload level IV to sustainable level II, but inter-provincial disparities expand. (2) The spatial pattern exhibits a gradient of higher levels in the western region, lower levels in the eastern region, stronger intensity in the northern region, and weaker intensity in the southern region, with weak spatial correlation. However, the spatial spillover effect is significant, with club convergence and the Matthew effect coexisting. (3) The obstacle factors exhibit a drive–influence–state three-stage dominant characteristic. The findings provide actionable insights for coordinating WSR optimization and ecological conservation.