Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics in the Yellow River Delta National Nature Reserve, China: Conservation Implications from Two Decades of Change

Yellow River Delta National Nature Reserve plays a critical role in ecological conservation, and assessing its ecosystem service value (ESV) is essential for guiding sustainable management strategies that harmonize development and preservation. This study was motivated by the need to generate actionable insights for adaptive conservation planning in this vulnerable coastal region. We evaluated the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESV from 2000 to 2020 using a combination of remote sensing, geographic information system analyses, and statistical modeling. Primary drivers influencing the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem service value were identified through geographical detector analysis, and future trends were projected based on historical patterns. The results revealed that (1) ESV showed a clear spatial gradient, with higher values in coastal zones, moderate values along river channels, and lower values inland, and exhibited an overall significant increase over the two decades, primarily driven by improvements in regulating services; (2) wetland area and precipitation were the most influential factors, though socio-economic elements and environmental conditions also contributed to ESV distribution; and (3) future ESV is expected to follow current trends, reinforcing the importance of current management practices. Given that the continuous increase in ESV from 2000 to 2020 was predominantly attributed to water body expansion, future conservation strategies should prioritize the protection and restoration of these water resources.