Spatial Correlation Network Analysis of PM2.5 in China: A Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model Approach

With the rapid acceleration of industrialization and urbanization in China, PM2.5 pollution has emerged as a major challenge to public health and sustainable development of the society and economy. At the interprovincial level, PM2.5 exhibits a complex spatial correlation network structure. Using data from 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2023, this study constructed a spatial correlation network of PM2.5 and analyzed its structural characteristics and formation mechanisms. The results reveal that China’s PM2.5 spatial correlation network is both complex and stable, underscoring the severity of the pollution problem. The network demonstrates a distinct ‘core–periphery’ distribution, with provinces such as Jiangsu, Shandong, and Henan occupying central positions and functioning as critical bridges. Block model analysis showed a clear role of differentiation among provinces in the diffusion of pollution. Temporal exponential random graph model suggests that geographical proximity, industrial structure, vehicle ownership, and government intervention are key factors shaping the network. Geographically adjacent provinces are more likely to form close connections, whereas environmental regulation and vehicle ownership tend to constrain the spread of pollution. This study provides a novel theoretical framework for understanding the spatial diffusion pathways of PM2.5 pollution and offers important policy implications for optimizing and implementing cross-regional air quality governance strategies in China.