Climate change impacts on Robusta coffee production in Vietnam

Abstract The Central Highlands of Vietnam is the largest Robusta coffee ( Coffea canephora Pierre ex A.Froehner) growing region in the world. This study identifies the most important climatic variables that determine the current distribution of coffee in the Central Highlands and builds a ‘coffee suitability’ model to assess changes in this distribution due to climate change scenarios. A neural network-based suitability model was trained on coffee occurrence data derived from national statistics on coffee-growing areas. Bias-corrected regional climate models, adjusted to reduce systematic deviations from observed patterns, were used for two climate change scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6) to assess changes in suitability for three future time periods (2038–2048, 2059–2069, 2060–2070) relative to the 2009–2019 baseline. Average expected losses in suitable areas were 62% and 27% for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The loss in suitability due to RCP8.5 is particularly pronounced after 2060. Increasing mean minimum temperature during the harvest (October–November) and growing season (March–September), and decreasing precipitation during the late growing season (July–September) mainly determined the loss in suitable areas. Given these risks, adaptation strategies such as shade management, soil conservation, and the development of climate-resilient varieties are essential to sustain coffee production in the region.