Field‐level crop choice responses to weather‐induced yield shocks in the <scp>US</scp> Corn Belt

Abstract As climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme heat events, farmers are expected to face greater variability in crop yields. Using 10 million field‐level observations, this study examines how farmers in the US Corn Belt adjust corn–soybean rotation decisions in response to yield shocks largely driven by weather fluctuations. The findings suggest that farmers tend to shift toward soybeans, which are more heat‐tolerant than corn, after a hotter‐than‐normal growing season, regardless of which crop experienced greater yield loss. However, I find little evidence of effective adaptation: years in which farmers plant more soybeans are not, on average, hotter than usual. Moreover, shocks that occurred more than 1 year prior have substantially smaller effects than the most recent shock. This pattern is consistent with recency bias, whereby farmers place disproportionate weight on recent experiences when making decisions. Overall, the results suggest that short‐term weather shocks can have lingering effects on land‐use decisions in commercial agricultural systems, with important implications for both agricultural production and environmental outcomes such as water quality.