Capital city status and policy influence on land dynamics: a case study of Sofifi, North Maluku Archipelago, Indonesia

As the world’s largest archipelagic nation, comprising 17,024 islands, Indonesia faces distinct challenges in managing urban expansion within its island cities, particularly given that 90% of its urban areas are situated along the coastlines. This study provides a critical analysis of Sofifi the designated as capital of North Maluku Province three decades ago, with the aim of informing scholarly debates and policy considerations surrounding the ongoing development of Indonesia’s new national capital Nusantara. By examining landscape changes in Sofifi between 1994 and 2024, the research assess the extent to which its administrative status as the provincial capital influenced urbanisation. It addresses a gap in global scholarship on landscape transformation in island-based cities as most existing literature focuses on mainland contexts. The analysis utilised satellite imagery from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. In addition to multitemporal Landsat imagery field surveys were conducted in early October 2024 to collect land cover samples. These data were processed through land cover classification and transformation analysis using the Change Detection Wizard in ArcGIS Pro. Findings revealed that despite administrative designation Sofifi experienced no significant urbanisation over the three decades. Lessons learned for Indonesia’s New National Capital (Nusantara) include the critical need to address the evident reluctance of populations to migrate to newly established capitals, which underscore the importance of inclusive planning and infrastructure readiness to ensure urban vibrancy.