Forecasting Patent Trends in the Agricultural Sector Using the ARIMA Model: A Case Study of IPC A01 Class

Patents play an important role in stimulating growth and innovation across various sectors, including agriculture. This study focuses on tracking technological progress in the agricultural domain by examining patent data as a proxy for innovation activity. Patents categorized under IPC A01, obtained from the European Patent Office (EPO) database, were analyzed to generate strategic insights that can inform future research and development initiatives. Applying the ARIMA time series model, patent application trends within the agricultural sector were examined, and forecasts were generated for the period ahead. The study showed that the best model for forecasting agricultural patents was the ARIMA(1,1,0) model. The MAPE value of the model was calculated as 7,88, and the RMSE value of the model was calculated as 7328,31. According to the model, the number of applications is expected to reach approximately 150.778 in 2023 and rise to 161.220 by 2028. This upward trajectory reflects a sustained momentum in agricultural innovation. The findings not only demonstrate the sector’s increasing engagement with technological advancement but also offer valuable foresight regarding future innovation patterns. The global rise in agricultural patenting, along with these projections, serves as a useful indicator of the sector's growing emphasis on inventive activity and its commitment to long-term technological development.