ARIMA-Based Projections for Tea Agriculture in Türkiye (2025–2030)

This study employs time series analysis to examine the dynamics of tea production in Türkiye. Data on tea production, cultivated area, and yield from 1988 to 2024 were analyzed separately to forecast trends in production volume, productivity, and cultivated area for the 2025–2030 period. The ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model, widely used in time series forecasting, was applied. Tea cultivation in Türkiye is predominantly concentrated in the Eastern Black Sea Region, particularly in the provinces of Rize, Trabzon, Artvin, and Giresun. Based on the national data, the findings suggest that the cultivated area is likely to decline from 810,000 hectares in 2024 to approximately 793,000 hectares by 2030. In contrast, production volume is projected to increase from 1.41 million tons to 1.55 million tons, while yield is expected to rise from 1,745 kg/ha to 1,935 kg/ha over the same period. These projections indicate a need to enhance land productivity through the adoption of modern agricultural practices. Promoting agricultural technologies and strengthening extension services and farmer education are crucial for sustaining productivity. Moreover, Türkiye could have a greater say in world production if precautionary policies are implemented against the effects of climate change, which has been frequently mentioned recently, and if the forecasts are near to accurate.