Exploring alternatives and unfolding possibilities: A futures perspective on carbon capture and storage in the Nordic region

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is increasingly recognised as a bridging technology for achieving a low-carbon future. However, its deployment faces significant uncertainties across technical, social, political, and economic dimensions. This study explores the possible futures of CCS in the Nordic region by addressing two key questions: What are the main drivers and uncertainties in the deployment of CCS-related technologies? And what generic scenarios can be envisioned for CCS by 2050? Based on a literature review and expert survey, and using structural analysis, this study identifies interdependencies among 15 key factors. The analysis highlights three primary driving forces: social acceptability, political development, and funding and business models, alongside technological innovations, which is a presumed driver, each encompassing distinct uncertainties. Using Dator’s Four Generic Futures framework, this paper develops scenario archetypes that outline four distinct pathways: Seamless deployment, a sustained growth path prioritising CCS for emission mitigation; Obstacle-ridden implementation, a disciplined path with constrained deployment due to systemic barriers; Stagnation, a collapse trajectory for CCS favouring zero-emission alternatives; and Negative emissions boom, a transformative scenario in which technologies such as BECCS and DACCS gains prominence. The study concludes with policy implications, reflecting the uncertainties and complexities surrounding CCS deployment in the Nordic context. • Exploring future CCS development alternatives through a futures studies perspective • Developing four alternative future scenarios for the future of CCS in 2050 • Identifying drivers and uncertainties of CCS development • Highlighting robust policy implications in the Nordic region