‘Active non-alignment’ in outer space: Brazil’s hedging strategy in the Sino-American space race

The emerging rivalry between the U.S. and China is poised to be the most significant factor shaping international politics in the coming decades. As both great powers aim to safeguard and advance their national interests, research has largely focused on how this rivalry will impact regional dynamics on Earth. However, outer space – due to its critical security and economic significance – will also be a key stage of this geopolitical rivalry. Brazil, with its unique geographic position, long-standing engagement in space activities, and political ambition to become a leading space actor, is positioned as a significant player in South America. Despite its historical relationships with both the U.S. and China in the development of its space program, the intensifying Sino-American rivalry is polarizing the geopolitical landscape. In response, Brazil has adopted a policy of ‘active non-alignment’ as a hedging strategy. This approach allows Brazil to navigate the growing polarization by maintaining strategic flexibility, minimizing risks, and maximizing opportunities, while seeking to establish itself as a leading space power in South America. This paper explores how Brazil’s ‘active non-alignment’ embodies the core principles of hedging in the context of the Sino-American rivalry in outer space.