The anatomy of survival — What determines seedling fate after planting in West Africa?

Tropical forest restoration is a global priority, yet its success often hinges on seedling survival in degraded landscapes. In West Africa, large-scale restoration is challenged by limited knowledge of how survival drivers interact across diverse native species. This study dissects the “anatomy of survival” by evaluating how planting time, shade, and vegetation competition shape early performance across 21,609 seedlings from 16 native tree species in central Côte d’Ivoire—a region marked by seasonal rainfall and widespread land degradation. A large-scale field experiment tested the effects of delayed planting, shade from intercropped banana, and competition from herbaceous cover, Panicum grasses, and the exotic tree Cedrela odorata . Seedling survival was monitored over the first growing season under operational planting conditions. Hierarchical Bayesian survival models were used to isolate species-specific responses to each factor while accounting for environmental variability. The analysis revealed a multidimensional structure to seedling survival. Early planting was generally beneficial, especially for slow-growing species. Banana shade consistently improved survival by buffering temperature and preserving soil moisture. Cedrela had strong negative effects on most species, underscoring its competitive dominance and incompatibility with native restoration. Herbaceous cover also reduced survival, though effects varied by species. Fromager, Kotibé, Ako, and Asan showed the highest survival probabilities across treatments. This breakdown of survival patterns provides a functional basis for restoration design. We propose species-specific guidelines emphasizing early planting, strategic shading, and targeted weeding. Yet given the complexity and cost of planting, assisted natural regeneration remains the preferred option where viable seed sources persist. • Seedling survival varied widely among 16 native species tested in West Africa. • Early planting improved survival by reducing dry-season stress. • Shading buffered microclimate stress and enhanced survival rates. • Competition from surrounding vegetation reduced seedling survival. • Species-specific strategies are vital for reforestation success in West Africa.