Rewriting the carbon story: Asia and Africa's journey through green investment and structural transformation

While there is a global push toward sustainable development in addressing climate change and environmental degradation, research on such discourse is limited. This study investigates how green investment, structural innovativeness and governance quality interact to influence carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions across 63 Asian and African countries. Using a panel dataset covering 2000–2023, a more robust Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model was employed to capture heterogeneous short-run adjustments and long-run equilibrium. Anchored on the Ecological Modernization Theory (EMT), various diagnostic tests confirm cross-sectional dependence and cointegration among the selected variables. Empirically, the results of long-run effect reveal that green investment, structural innovativeness and governance quality reduce CO 2 emissions. Additionally, the synergistic effect of green investment and structural innovativeness reduces CO 2 emissions by 0.11%, underscoring important synergies between finance and technology. Furthermore, African countries enjoy larger returns to green investment, whereas Asian economies benefit more from structural innovativeness, reflecting divergent structural conditions. The findings align with Sustainable Development Goals 7 (affordable and clean energy), 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure) and 13 (climate actions) and highlight the critical role of institutional quality in maximizing climate dividends. The study calls for policies including scaling green finance, expanding cleantech R&D incentives and strengthening regulatory transparency to accelerate the transition toward net-zero emissions. • The nexus of green investment, structural innovativeness, and governance is studied in 63 Asian and African economies. • Green investment, governance, and innovation reduce CO 2 emissions in the long run. • A combined policy effect lowers emissions by 0.11%, signaling strong synergy. • Africa sees greater impact from green investment; Asia benefits more from innovation. • Findings support carbon neutrality as a viable development pathway.