Transforming arid regions: CLEWs–OSeMOSYS pathways for low-carbon jobs and circular resource loops

Arid regions face acute water scarcity, with traditional farming dominating groundwater use and employment. This study asks whether strict groundwater and carbon limits can sustain jobs while reducing emissions. Using the CLEWs–OSeMOSYS framework in Iran’s Khash region, this study quantifies low-carbon employment pathways and model circular resource loops—wastewater reuse, biowaste-to-energy, and CO₂ use in greenhouses.Three 2020–2050 scenarios impose a 50 % groundwater cut and reduce traditional agriculture/livestock by 50–90 % under carbon caps of 30–90 %. In the base case, agriculture employs ∼32 000 workers (75 % of jobs), consumes 367 MCM of water, and emits 0.3 Mt CO₂. Under the most stringent pathway (SC III), withdrawals fall to 62 MCM (–84 %), emissions drop 90 %, and farm jobs shrink by 90 %. Yet total employment rises slightly (∼40 000), with 28 600 jobs in renewables, 8 100 in greenhouse farming, and 5 100 in CCUS-based ethylene. Circular measures generate 18.6 MW of biopower, meet 46 % of domestic water demand, and support 31.7 ha of CO₂-enriched greenhouses.These results show that resource constraints can drive structural shifts toward resilient, low-carbon economies. Policy priorities include greenhouse adoption with reskilling, expansion of renewables and CCUS petrochemicals, and tariff reforms to incentivize reuse and biogas.