The impact of train accessibility on housing affordability: evidence from COVID-19 and the work-from-home shift

• Analyse the impact of train access on housing affordability for houses and units. • Remote or hybrid work models reduce demand for train accessibility. • Reduced investment and ownership demand but strong rental demand near train stops. • Units in train-stop suburbs most affected. • Highlights the potential to improve rental affordability in train-stop suburbs through TOD. This study examines the impact of train accessibility on housing affordability in Sydney, Australia, before, during, and after COVID‑19. Using panel regression and propensity score matching (PSM) to mitigate bias from unobserved neighbourhood heterogeneity and sample selection, we compare housing affordability between train-stop and non-stop suburbs for both house and unit (apartment) markets. Our findings indicate that before COVID‑19, housing affordability was worse in train-stop suburbs relative to non-stop suburbs due to an accessibility premium, particularly for houses. However, the pandemic and the shift towards remote work significantly reduced this premium, resulting in improved purchase affordability in train-stop suburbs for homeowners and investors, particularly for units. Meanwhile, rental affordability for houses in train-stop suburbs improved during and after the pandemic, but not for units. Our findings may influence the effectiveness and design of the government’s Transport‑Oriented Development (TOD) initiatives aimed at increasing unit/apartment supply around major train stations under changing commuting patterns and post-pandemic housing demand.