Global average socio-economic farm size may triple by 2100

Farm size is vital for food production and environmental outcomes, yet global dynamics remain unclear. In this study, we introduce an indicator as 'socio-economic farm size' defined as the agricultural land area divided by the number of farms. Unlike purely geophysical measures, socio-economic farm size incorporates demographic, labor, and economic factors, providing a more holistic understanding of farm size dynamics. Our long-term dataset reveals a 15% decline in global average socio-economic farm size from 1970 to 2000, a 14% increase from 2000 to 2020, and may triple by 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 (middle pathway) scenario. While Europe, Northern America, and Oceania saw exponential growth in recent decades, regions like India and Sub-Saharan Africa experienced reductions. Future trends indicate widespread consolidation toward larger farms including in Asia and Africa, driven by declining rural populations. Our findings underscore the need for targeted policies to address the challenges and opportunities associated with farm consolidation, ensuring sustainable food production in a rapidly changing world.