Scenario-based modelling of industrial energy demand and GHG emissions: A 2050 outlook for Slovenia

Addressing GHG emissions in industrial sectors is crucial for developed nations' energy and environmental policies. European countries use diverse strategies to mitigate industrial GHG impacts, with energy models evaluating national objectives and supporting policy implementation. A new hybrid bottom-up technology-oriented simulation model has been developed for Slovenia's industrial sector, focusing on energy-intensive industries like paper, metal, chemical, and cement production. This model, linked with the macroeconomic GEM model, assesses the impacts of GHG reduction measures on the national economy. This paper introduces the Reference Energy System model for the industrial sector REES SLO, aiding Slovenia's NECP update. It details input parameters, model structure, proposed measures, peculiarities of energy-intensive industries, and calculation results. The findings indicate that decarbonizing Slovenia's industrial sector is feasible but demands immediate policy intervention, substantial investments, and a collaborative approach among stakeholders. Advanced technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), hydrogen-based solutions, and enhanced energy efficiency measures are essential components of this transition. The integration of renewable energy sources (RES) and circular economy principles further strengthens pathways toward sustainability. The REES IND model underscores the importance of aligning industrial decarbonization strategies with broader economic and environmental objectives. It provides a comprehensive framework for policymakers to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed measures and their long-term impacts. Achieving these goals requires a phased approach, beginning with energy efficiency improvements and progressing to structural changes and advanced technologies. The model’s insights pave the way for sustainable industrial transformation, aligning Slovenia’s industrial sector with national and European Union climate objectives. • Development of a novel hybrid bottom-up model (REES IND) for Slovenia’s industrial sector, enabling technology-specific projections of energy demand and GHG emissions up to 2050. • Linkage with complementary models and datasets to ensure consistency with national energy statistics, policy targets, and scenario frameworks, creating a robust and reproducible analytical basis. • Detailed representation of energy-intensive industries (paper, chemicals, cement, metals) with explicit modelling of efficiency measures, fuel switching, electrification, and CCUS deployment. • Stakeholder-driven calibration using 2020 baseline data, structured interviews, and collaboration with the State Statistical Office and industry representatives, enhancing robustness and credibility. • Comprehensive assessment framework that combines activity data, technology shares, efficiency trajectories, and fuel-switch dynamics, providing a transparent methodology that can be replicated for other countries or regions.