Chinese provincial-level new records for 96 resident bird species reveal poleward range shifts

Anthropogenic climate change is altering species distributions globally. While species distributions are expected to shift to higher latitudes and elevations under global warming, empirical evidence on distribution shifts is mixed, and factors mediating the direction and magnitude of range shifts remain unclear. Using a dataset of 132 new provincial records for 96 resident bird species from 2000 to 2023, we measured geographic distance, latitudinal shift, and temperature shift from each new record to the historical range for each species to test for poleward shifts. We assessed taxonomic variation in the magnitude of range shifts and used phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models to quantify relationships between species traits and the extent of range shifts. Our results revealed that new records occurred at a mean geographic distance of 420 km from historical ranges, with mean latitudinal shifts of +1.68° (poleward) and temperature shifts of −1.33 °C (toward colder climates). The magnitude of geographic range shifts was strongly constrained by phylogenetic relatedness. Habitat breadth, habitat openness, and centroid latitude of historical ranges emerged as significant predictors of range shifts. Our results suggest that resident bird species’ geographic ranges in China are shifting poleward, but the magnitude of these shifts is non-random across lineages. Species with broader habitat preferences and those from warmer climates are more likely to shift farther from their historical ranges and toward higher latitudes. This study emphasizes taxonomic variation in species range shifts and highlights the need for species- and site-specific conservation strategies under global warming.