Dynamic assessment of precipitation and temperature shifts in Punjab using a VAR model

This study examines the changing climate patterns in Punjab from 1981 to 2020, focusing on precipitation concentration, seasonality, and temperature variability. These factors are important for the region’s agriculture, particularly wheat and rice production. The analysis utilizes the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), Seasonality Index (SI), and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) to identify long-term trends. The results show that after 2000, there were no years with low or moderate precipitation (PCI < 10 or PCI 10–15), with 10 years consistently experiencing highly irregular precipitation (PCI > 20). The Seasonality Index reveals that seven years between 2001 and 2020 had rainfall concentrated within three months (SI 1.0–1.19), compared to six years in the previous period. Temperature analysis indicates that summer maximum temperature anomalies reached + 8.763 °C and spring minimum temperatures peaked at + 17.11 °C. Further, the VAR (5) model forecasts slight increases in rainfall, with maximum and minimum temperatures expected to rise by 0.5 °C to 1.2 °C and 1.1 °C to 2.6 °C, respectively, by mid-century. These findings highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient agricultural practices and improved water management strategies to protect wheat and rice production in Punjab, as both crops are susceptible to these climate shifts.