Incentive of tax policy and labour upgrade: evidence from the value-added tax refund reform in China

Purpose Using China’s 2018 value-added tax (VAT) refund reform as a quasi-natural experiment, we delve into the mechanisms underlying the relationship between incentive of tax policy and corporate labour upgrading. We propose a comprehensive framework to illustrate how the VAT refund reform, without imposing the burden of additional fixed assets, influences firms’ labour structure by alleviating financing constraints and increasing R&D investment. We conjecture that the reform improves firms’ cash flows and increases R&D investment. These improvements expand overall employment, raise demand for high-skilled employees, and strengthen their compensation. Together, these effects generate synergistic gains in labour upgrading. Design/methodology/approach Using data on China’s A-share listed firms from 2014 to 2021, we employ a difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine the impact of the 2018 VAT refund reform on labour upgrading. Our analyses control for enterprise-level characteristics, corporate governance attributes, and unobserved heterogeneity at the firm and year levels. Findings The VAT refund reform leads to an increase in the total number of employees, mainly due to growth in the number of high-skilled workers, whereas its effect on the number of regular employees remains limited. Then, the VAT refund reform promotes labour upgrading by alleviating financing constraints and boosting R&D investment, without imposing the burden of additional fixed assets. Cross-sectional analyses further demonstrate that the effect of the reform is more pronounced in enterprises with low capital intensity and those in the growth and maturity stages. Ultimately, the reform not only optimises the labour structure but also enhances labour compensation. Originality/value We enrich prior literature by contributing to the ongoing debate on whether and how VAT refund reform affects the labour force. In contrast to studies that link tax reform to higher fixed asset investment, we find that the reform primarily stimulates the hiring of high-skilled employees. These employees depend more on knowledge and expertise and less on fixed assets. Our evidence thus advances research on both labour upgrading and VAT refund reform.