Specialized vs. Diversified Agglomeration: Which More Effectively Enhances Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity? Evidence from Chinese Cities

As the fundamental spatial carriers of population and economic activities, cities are central to advancing Chinese-style modernization, making the enhancement of their comprehensive carrying capacity (CCP) an essential pathway toward sustainable development. Drawing on panel data from 284 prefecture-level cities in China covering the period of 2005–2022, this study constructs a dynamic spatial Durbin model to examine how different forms of industrial agglomeration influence urban CCP. The results indicate the following: (1) Urban CCP demonstrates significant spatial dependence across cities. (2) Both specialization and diversification exert pronounced spatiotemporal lag effects. Specifically, specialized agglomeration tends to suppress the urban CCP of both local and neighboring cities, whereas diversified agglomeration generally contributes to its improvement. (3) The spatiotemporal effects of specialized agglomeration and diversified agglomeration on urban CCP exhibit heterogeneity across regions and economic development levels. Diversified agglomeration significantly enhances the CCP of cities in the central region and those with higher economic development levels, while the western region and cities with lower economic development levels are more suited for industrial specialized agglomeration. (4) Further research has found that specialized agglomeration and diversified agglomeration have heterogeneous spatiotemporal effects on different dimensions of urban CCP. These findings suggest that governments at all levels should formulate differentiated industrial agglomeration strategies that align with local resource endowments and industrial foundations, thereby fostering high-quality urban development tailored to local conditions.