Multi-Scenario Simulation and Restoration Strategy of Ecological Security Pattern in the Yellow River Delta

The Yellow River Delta is one of China’s most ecologically fragile regions, experiencing prolonged pressures from rapid urbanization and ecological degradation. Existing research, however, has predominantly focused on constructing ecological security patterns under single scenarios, with limited systematic multi-scenario comparisons and insufficient statistical support. To address this gap, this study proposes an integrated framework of “land use simulation—multi-scenario ecological security pattern construction—statistical comparative analysis.” Using the PLUS model, three scenarios were constructed—Business-as-Usual (BAU), Priority Urban Development (PUD), and Priority Ecological Protection (PEP)—to simulate land use changes by 2040. Habitat quality assessment, Multi-Scale Pattern Analysis (MSPA), landscape connectivity, and circuit theory were integrated to identify ecological source areas, corridors, and nodes, incorporating a novel hexagonal grid partitioning method. Statistical significance was evaluated using parametric tests (ANOVA, t-test) and non-parametric tests (permutation test, PERMANOVA). Analysis indicated significant differences in ecological security patterns across scenarios. Under the PEP scenario, ecological source areas reached 3580.42 km2 (12.39% of the total Yellow River Delta), corresponding to a 14.85% increase relative to the BAU scenario and a 32.79% increase relative to the PUD scenario. These gains are primarily attributable to stringent wetland and forestland protection policies, which successfully limited the encroachment of construction land into ecological space. Habitat quality and connectivity markedly improved, resulting in the highest ecosystem stability. By contrast, the PUD scenario experienced an 851.46 km2 expansion of construction land, resulting in the shrinkage of ecological source areas and intensified fragmentation, consequently increasing ecological security risks. The BAU scenario demonstrated moderate outcomes, with a moderately balanced spatial configuration. In conclusion, this study introduces an ecological restoration strategy of “five zones, one belt, one center, and multiple corridors” based on multi-scenario ecological security patterns. This provides a scientific foundation for ecological restoration and territorial spatial planning in the Yellow River Delta, while the proposed multi-scenario statistical comparison method provides a replicable methodological framework for ecological security pattern research in other delta regions.