A Three-Stage Super-Efficient SBM-DEA Analysis on Spatial Differentiation of Land Use Carbon Emission and Regional Efficiency in Shanxi Province, China

Achieving carbon peaking and neutrality is critical for global sustainability efforts and addressing climate change, yet improving land use carbon emission efficiency (LUCE) remains a challenge, especially in resource-dependent regions like Shanxi Province. Existing studies often overlook the spatial heterogeneity of LUCE and the mechanisms behind its driving factors. This study assesses LUCE disparities and explores low-carbon land use pathways in Shanxi to support its sustainable transition. Based on county-level land use data from 1990 to 2022, carbon emissions were estimated, and LUCE was measured using a three-stage super-efficient SBM-DEA model, with stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to control for external noise. eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) with SHAP values was used to identify key socio-economic and environmental drivers. The results show the following: (1) emissions rose 2.46-fold, mainly due to expanding construction land and shrinking cultivated land, with hotspots in Taiyuan, Jinzhong, and Linfen; (2) LUCE improved due to gains in technical and scale efficiency, while pure technical efficiency stayed stable; (3) urbanization and government intervention promoted LUCE, whereas higher per capita GDP constrained it; and (4) population density, economic growth, urbanization, and green technology were the dominant, interacting drivers of land use carbon emissions. This study integrates LUCE assessment with interpretable machine learning, demonstrating a framework that links efficiency evaluation with driver analysis. The findings provide critical insights for formulating regionally adaptive low-carbon land use policies, which are essential for achieving ecological sustainability and supporting the sustainable development of resource-based regions.