Spatial Spillover Effect of Green Industrial Agglomeration on Carbon Productivity

Green industry, as an emerging industry, plays an important role in improving regional economic and environmental performance and promoting green sustainable development. This study calculates carbon productivity using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2013 and 2022. It employs the location quotient index to measure green industrial agglomeration (GIA) levels and utilizes the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and spatial mediation effect model to empirically examine the impact of GIA on carbon productivity (CP), its spatial effects, and the role of technological innovation therein. The results are as follows: (1) GIA not only directly enhances local CP but also exerts positive effects on surrounding regions through spatial spillover effects. (2) Spatial mediation analysis indicates that technological innovation mediates effects within regions and amplifies the positive impact of GIA on CP in surrounding areas through spatial spillover effects. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that regional differences in green productivity level leads to different effects of GIA on CP. Based on empirical findings, this study provides practical evidence for optimizing the spatial layout of green industries and offers policy implications for advancing China’s green and low-carbon development.