Promoting the Green Transformation of Traditional Ships in Anhui Province: A Model Prediction Cost Analysis Algorithm for a New Electrification Transformation Scheme Using Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery

Promoting the green transformation of traditional diesel-powered ships is crucial for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This study focuses on diesel-engine ships operating in the inland river areas of Anhui Province, China. It proposes two electrification retrofit schemes based mainly on lithium iron phosphate (LIP) batteries: full electrification and diesel-engine redundancy. The economic and environmental impacts of these schemes are analyzed and compared with those of conventional diesel-powered ships. A cost prediction algorithm based on model prediction is proposed, supported by a mathematical model for cost analysis. Results indicate that for electric tankers to become economically viable, battery costs must decrease through yearly improvements in energy density and reduced degradation rates. Additionally, government support is essential, such as raising carbon prices and providing subsidies—either an annual operational subsidy of CNY 80,000 or an initial construction subsidy of CNY 500,000. The study concludes that continued advances in battery technology, together with policy and financial support, will accelerate the large-scale electrification of ships.