Demographic Aging in Agriculture: Implications for Employment in Turkish Agriculture

This study aims to analyze the impact of demographic transformation in Türkiye's agricultural sector on agricultural employment. By considering factors such as the increasing proportion of elderly individuals in the agricultural labor force, the withdrawal of younger generations from the sector, and structural changes like mechanization, an econometric analysis was conducted using the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model for the 2000–2024 period. Within the analysis, the aging index, total agricultural area, and number of tractors were used as independent variables, while the agricultural employment rate was modeled as the dependent variable. The findings indicate that the aging index has a statistically significant and negative long-term effect on agricultural employment. While the size of agricultural land positively influences employment, increased mechanization has been observed to reduce labor demand. The results of the error correction model reveal that short-term deviations return to equilibrium within approximately 1.5 years. These results underscore the importance of policies aimed at encouraging young people to engage in agriculture and enhancing the attractiveness of rural areas.