Committed acceleration of climate stresses in the coming decades

Abstract Although the rate of increase in global greenhouse gas emissions has slowed, both annual emissions and the mean global temperature have continued to increase. Breaching the 1.5 °C annual global temperature anomaly, along with the increasing prevalence of high-impact climate extremes, have heightened the urgency of understanding whether ambitious decarbonization will be effective in avoiding dangerous climate change. Even without any acceleration in the rate of global warming, the certainty of continued greenhouse gas emissions combined with the nonlinear response of climate extremes and the nonlinear sensitivities of natural and human systems collectively create a commitment to acceleration of climate stresses. Although adaptation and/or negative greenhouse gas emissions could theoretically reduce this commitment, doing so will require greater investment and effectiveness than has been demonstrated to date.