The impact of tropical cyclones on fishing boats from a global perspective

This study quantifies the impact of tropical cyclones on fishing boat activity using satellite imagery and tropical cyclone data from 2012 to 2023 across 42 countries. Kernel density estimation identifies key fishing grounds, and impacts are assessed through Generalized Linear Mixed Models. The results reveal significant regional variation in tropical cyclone impacts on fishing activities, with wind speed effects ranging from − 1.17% to + 0.50% change in boat numbers per knot increase. Negative impacts on fishing grounds were mostly in Southeast Asian waters, particularly Indonesia (− 1.22%), the Philippines (− 0.82%), and Myanmar (-0.58%), while positive effects were observed in some fishing grounds of China (+ 0.45%) and Canada (+ 0.45%). Future projections based on predicted cyclone intensification suggest that the Marshall Islands and Vanuatu will experience the highest negative outcomes (− 1.96% and − 1.93%, respectively). The North and South Indian Oceans and the Southwest Pacific reveal overall negative effects across all countries. While North Atlantic countries show consistent positive impact, Northwest countries show mixed impacts. Between 2012 and 2023, countries like Japan, China, and the Philippines recorded the highest total number of TC-affected days, with 205, 188, and 129 days, respectively, highlighting the prolonged disruptions to fishing activities in the Northwest Pacific region.