Does Foreign Trade in Agricultural Raw Materials Promote Agricultural Credit in Türkiye ? Fourier-Based Evidence on Import- and Export-Led Growth Hypotheses

This study aims to examine the effect of agricultural raw material imports and exports on the volume of credit extended to the agricultural sector in Türkiye, using annual observations for the period 1989–2023. The research is grounded in the theoretical framework of foreign trade and economic growth, with the volume of agricultural credit treated as an indicator of economic development. In the model, the dependent variable is the volume of credit provided to the agricultural sector, the independent variables are agricultural raw material imports and exports, and the control variable is agricultural arable land. The stationarity properties of the variables were assessed using the Fourier Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (FKPSS) test, while long-run relationships were identified via the Fourier–Shin cointegration test. After confirming the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship, coefficient estimates were obtained using dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS). According to the DOLS estimates, a 1 percent increase in agricultural raw material imports, exports, and arable land raises the agricultural credit volume by 0.19 percent, 0.65 percent, and 5.80 percent, respectively. Causality relations among the variables were examined with the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (FTY) test; unidirectional causality running from imports, exports, and arable land to agricultural credit was detected. The results indicate that foreign trade in agricultural raw materials supports agricultural lending and that export- and import-led growth hypotheses are corroborated. Based on these findings—and given the higher elasticity of exports with respect to credit and the marked effect of arable land on credit volume—it is recommended that strategic policies be developed and implemented to enhance international competitiveness, offset imported input costs, and optimize land productivity.