The Relationship Between Student Attendance and Achievement, Pre- and Post-COVID

We examine the relationship between absenteeism and achievement since the onset of COVID-19. Applying first-differences models to North Carolina administrative data, we estimate that, in 2023–2024, each day absent was associated with a 0.0057 standard deviation ( SD ) decline in a student’s math achievement, with evidence of additional negative effects from peer absenteeism. As students averaged three more absences in 2023–2024 than their peers in 2018–2019, these estimates imply that achievement may have improved by 0.017–0.025 SD s if absence rates had returned to pre-pandemic norms in 2023–2024, which would account for 13%–19% of the total needed to achieve a full academic recovery. We additionally find that the negative effect of absenteeism was weaker in immediate post-COVID years, suggesting that the effect of absenteeism on achievement may be affected by changes in contextual factors. Overall, findings highlight the important but partial degree to which attendance recovery may support academic recovery.