Real-Time Detection of LEO Satellite Orbit Maneuvers Based on Geometric Distance Difference

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, characterized by low altitudes, high velocities, and strong ground signal reception, have become an essential and dynamic component of modern global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). However, orbit decay induced by atmospheric drag poses persistent challenges to maintaining stable trajectories. Frequent orbit maneuvers, though necessary to sustain nominal orbits, introduce significant difficulties for precise orbit determination (POD) and navigation augmentation, especially under complex operational conditions. Unlike most existing methods that rely on Two-Line Element (TLE) data—often affected by noise and limited accuracy—this study directly utilizes onboard GNSS observations in combination with real-time precise ephemerides. A novel time-series indicator is proposed, defined as the geometric root-mean-square (RMS) distance between reduced-dynamic and kinematic orbit solutions, which is highly responsive to orbit disturbances. To further enhance robustness, a sliding window-based adaptive thresholding mechanism is developed to dynamically adjust detection thresholds, maintaining sensitivity to maneuvers while suppressing false alarms. The proposed method was validated using eight representative maneuver events from the GRACE-FO satellites (May 2018–June 2022), successfully detecting seven of them. One extremely short-duration maneuver was missed due to the limited number of usable GNSS observations after quality-control filtering. To examine altitude-related applicability, two Sentinel-3A maneuvers were also analyzed, both successfully detected, confirming the method’s effectiveness at higher LEO altitudes. Since the thrust magnitudes and durations of the Sentinel-3A maneuvers are not publicly available, these cases primarily serve to verify applicability rather than to quantify sensitivity. Experimental results show that for GRACE-FO maneuvers, the proposed method achieves near-real-time responsiveness under long-duration, high-thrust conditions, with an average detection delay below 90 s. For Sentinel-3A, detections occurred approximately 7 s earlier than the reported maneuver epochs, a discrepancy attributed to the 30 s observation sampling interval rather than methodological bias. Comparative analysis with representative existing methods, presented in the discussion section, further demonstrates the advantages of the proposed approach in terms of sensitivity, timeliness, and adaptability. Overall, this study presents a practical, efficient, and scalable solution for real-time maneuver detection in LEO satellite missions, contributing to improved GNSS augmentation, space situational awareness, and autonomous orbit control.