Questioning the economic conditions-imprisonment link: A methodological review of the political economy of punishment's empirical literature

The relationship between economic conditions and imprisonment has long been debated in the political economy of punishment, with scholars, inspired by Rusche and Kirchheimer (1939), examining whether economic downturns increase incarceration rates. However, empirical findings remain inconclusive. This article reviews 47 longitudinal studies (1950s–2020s) testing this relationship, focusing on the data analysis techniques employed and their implications for results. The findings reveal a prevalence of techniques poorly suited for time-series data, such as correlation and regression analyses, which are more likely to yield significant results (82%) compared to time-series-specific techniques like cointegration analysis (68%). Through a case study of France (1960–2019), the article demonstrates how different analytical approaches applied to the same data yield opposite conclusions about the economy-imprisonment relationship. The article connects these methodological issues to theoretical developments in the field, showing how contemporary scholarship emphasizes complex, mediated relationships that require appropriate analytical techniques to test effectively. It identifies a critical gap between theoretical sophistication and methodological practice, arguing that the complex, mediated relationships proposed in contemporary political economy of punishment theories demand time-series-specific methods capable of detecting such nuanced dynamics.